Africans head to the polls

In a nine-day span from 30 July to 8 August, no fewer than five Sub Saharan African countries will hold nationwide elections, credit insurer Coface has highlighted. Warning of a “summer of living dangerously”, Coface said the citizens of Senegal, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Mauritania and Kenya will successively be called to the ballot boxes. They will be quickly followed by a seventh election on 23 August in Angola. The credit insurer said: “These elections, sometimes in name only, present varying challenges but all carry a certain level of risk. “In addition to the six elections, a ninth no-confidence motion against South Africa’s President Zuma, which may have a different outcome this time, is on the African political agenda for 8 August. Hence, the concentration of high stakes political events will pep up the summer below the Tropic of Cancer.” Running through the elections one by one, Coface made the following observations. Senegal: a model stumbling on organisation issues Senegal will kickstart the election period on the African continent with its legislative elections held on 30 July. Often considered a model of democracy in Africa and in the west African sub-region, controversies over the organisation of the ballot are tarnishing the standing of the Senegalese democracy. At the core of the controversy are the new biometric ID cards, launched last year, which, according to the Ministry of Home Affairs, were not delivered to close to a third of the population but are, nevertheless, mandatory to vote. In addition, with no fewer than 47 candidate lists, confusion and congestion at the polling booth are likely to prevail. Congo, Rwanda, Angola: May the best (incumbent’s) bid win On the same day, Congolese citizens in Brazzaville might envy the choice offered to their Senegalese counterparts. Dominated by President Denis Sassou-Nguesso since 1979 – except for five years between 1992 and 1997 – and his Congolese Party of Labour (PCT), the outcome of the legislative elections leaves no room for surprises. After the first round, on 16 July, the PCT had already won 70 out of the 151 seats at stake. A year after a controversial presidential election, the legislative election will merely entrench President Sassou’s dominance of the political stage. Similarly, the presidential election in Rwanda, on 4 August, and the general election in Angola on 23 August, should also be free of surprises. The Rwandan Constitution, amended with 98% of the vote in 2015, could potentially let Paul Kagame, in charge since 1994, extend his rule until 2034. In Angola, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, 38 years in office, will step down but it will only bring a cosmetic change. Designated successor, João Lourenço, is a new face but will perpetuate the MPLA’s supremacy. Kenya: ten years after In Kenya, a nail-biting general election, which will see Uhuru Kenyatta, the incumbent, face Raila Odinga, a twice unsuccessful candidate (2007 and 2013), raises the vivid memory of the 2007 post-election violence (1,300 dead, 600,000 displaced). Even though the 2013 election, marked by intense accusations of rigging, went on quite peacefully, it fuelled distrust in the impartiality of the judiciary. Hit by a severe drought in 2017 and still plagued by domestic insecurity, from al-Shabaab, extra-judicial killing and corruption, the country is breeding exasperation. A divisive campaign sometimes led on ethnic lines could turn exasperation into violence. Mauritania: a controversial referendum Political tension is also on the rise in Mauritania, after President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz called a constitutional referendum. The constitutional amendment provides for the abolition of the senate, changing the national flag and modifying the lyrics of the national anthem. The opposition rejects the proposed change, which it argues would cement the President’s grip on power. Moreover, the referendum is deemed a “constitutional coup” by the opposition because it questions the legitimacy of the parliament, which rejected the same amendment in March. South Africa: ‘comme d’habitude’? Not quite In South Africa, not spared from political woes in the past few years, it is not a nationwide election that receives attention but a no-confidence motion against President Jacob Zuma in the National Assembly. Admittedly, he has survived eight such votes since he took office in 2009 and the 49-seat majority the ANC party enjoys in the lower chamber of parliament could indicate that it will not be different this time. Nevertheless, for the first time, the ballot might be held in secret, meaning that names and parties would not be recorded. It would open the door for quiet dissenters among the ANC to vote for the no-confidence motion without fear of reprisal from President Zuma or the party. According to a June 2017 High Court ruling, this decision depends solely on the Speaker of the National Assembly. Hence, observers of the Rainbow Nation’s politics hang on Speaker Baleka Mbete’s every word. Risks Election-related violence is the main risk to anticipate in the forthcoming month. The risk is, nevertheless, unevenly distributed: 1) The Kenyan general election will probably be the most anxiously awaited: recent history and the campaign fuel worries. 2) Even if it is not risk-immune, the Senegalese election probably has lower risk. 3) Elections, in name only, in Angola and Rwanda present only the issue of entrenching the stability of, respectively, a one-party state and a one-man state. 4) In Congo, already plagued by violence in the Pool region, no change is expected: this year’s election is unlikely to administer relief, never mind change for the country. 5) In Mauritania, a controversial referendum could potentially expose the delicateness of a nascent democracy.

Africans head to the polls

Want to read this article?

Read Next

Taiwan earthquake claims unlikely to cause capital event

Market softening could move towards rate cuts for downstream energy buyers

Q1 2024 records $20bn in nat cat losses: Gallagher Re

AM Best warns of insurers’ growing reserve risk

IFRIMA mourns the death of board member Jorge Luzzi

Taiwan earthquake claims unlikely to cause capital event

Market softening could move towards rate cuts for downstream energy buyers

Q1 2024 records $20bn in nat cat losses: Gallagher Re

AM Best warns of insurers’ growing reserve risk

IFRIMA mourns the death of board member Jorge Luzzi

Want to read this article?

Read Next

Taiwan earthquake claims unlikely to cause capital event

Market softening could move towards rate cuts for downstream energy buyers

Q1 2024 records $20bn in nat cat losses: Gallagher Re

AM Best warns of insurers’ growing reserve risk

IFRIMA mourns the death of board member Jorge Luzzi

Related Articles