Above-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast by scientists, says AGCS

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above average, with an estimated 14 to 15 tropical storms and seven to eight hurricanes, of which three to five will be major hurricanes (category 3-5), according to Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS). However, there is considerable uncertainty over the development of El Niño in 2018 and its impact on the Atlantic hurricane season. The AGCS reinsurance and catastrophe management team annually provides an outlook for the upcoming hurricane season. The majority of meteorological predictions forecast an above-average hurricane season for 2018, said AGCS, but it explained that uncertainties regarding the prediction of the development of El Niño – one of the key variables for tropical storm formation in the Atlantic Ocean – has led to wide variations among different predictions, and high uncertainty. El Niño tends to decrease hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean. For example, Tropical Storm Risk predicts six hurricanes and just two major hurricanes, and says the season will be below average (with respect to the historical average number of hurricanes during the time period 1950-2017), while North Carolina State University forecasts seven to 11 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, and says the season will be above average. The Atlantic had three quiet hurricane seasons from 2013 to 2015, followed by a slightly above-average season in 2016 and an extremely active hurricane season in 2017. However, AGCS pointed out that last year’s prediction for 2017 – based on the six meteorological organisations making forecasts – was for near-normal activity, with 12 to 13 tropical storms, five to six hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes. In fact, the 2017 hurricane season was the most expensive on record and ended with 17 named storms, ten of which reached hurricane status, and six of which reached major hurricane strength, said AGCS.Scientists from one of the organisations, Global Weather Oscillation, are predicting above-average hurricane activity for three major reasons, said AGCS. The reasons are: The ocean water temperature continues to stay warmer than normal across most of the Atlantic Basin, especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the US, resembling the ocean temperature of last year; The Bermuda-Azores High Pressure Center will be in a favourable location, allowing more named storms to maintain strength moving from east to west across the Atlantic towards the US; During the spring, weak El Niño conditions will possibly occur, however they could be too weak to dampen the hurricane season. “However, there is a high level of uncertainty regarding the prediction of El Niño formation and the estimation of the effect El Niño will have on the hurricane season,” AGCS noted. “Given these three arguments, there is a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 35% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 5% chance of a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2018.”

Above-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast by scientists, says AGCS

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