Pool Re warns of changing terror threat

There were 226 global terrorist attacks in the last quarter of 2017, causing 2,248 deaths, according to a new quarterly Terrorism Frequency Report by Pool Re, the reinsurance pool for terrorism risks in the UK. Four of the attacks were recorded in Europe. In addition, Pool Re notes that there were five successful terror attacks in the UK last year, resulting in 36 deaths and more than 300 injuries. During the last quarter of 2017, the deadliest terror attack was in Mogadishu, Somalia in October, in which more than 500 people died in two explosions carried by vehicles, which the government blamed on al Shabaab. In Egypt, more than 300 people died in November when 30 terrorists carrying Daesh flags detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) near a mosque and opened fire, also setting light to nearby cars. The US recorded three terror attacks in the fourth quarter of 2017, including October’s vehicle attack in Manhattan and an IED attack in December at Port Authority Bus Station. The highest numbers of attacks in Q4 were recorded in the Middle East and North Africa (91), south Asia (60) and Sub Saharan Africa (47). The Pool Re report details several foiled UK terror plots in the last quarter, raising the total number of plots thwarted in the UK during 2017 to ten. In December, two separate plots were uncovered in the UK. Two British nationals were charged with terrorism offences over an alleged plot to murder the Prime Minister using an IED and knives. Just before Christmas, four men were arrested under the Terrorist Act on suspicion of plotting an attack. Two Iraqi nationals were later charged. The report says the use of IEDs, and their prevalence in plots, has emerged as an increasing trend in terror attacks, in particular following the UK attacks at Manchester Arena and Parsons Green. Terrorist risks in the UK could also be driven upwards by a potential merger between Al Qaeda and Daesh, said Pool Re. “Such a merger would likely see a successor organisation strengthened and intent on conducting sophisticated attacks against the West to (re)establish its position at the forefront of the global jihadist movement,” its report states. It continues: “This could lead to an increase in both the severity and frequency of plots against the UK encouraged or directed from overseas. Despite this, the principal threat to the UK would likely continue to emanate from lone actors and small groups inspired by extremist ideology to commit attacks employing a range of methodologies.” Online radicalism, or a virtual Caliphate, is also an emerging threat as the physical Caliphate in Iraq and Syria weakens, the report notes. Pool Re adds that cyberattacks could increase as a terrorist weapon. In a guest article for the report, former deputy head of GCHQ, Conrad Prince, writes that the UK faces a growing and real threat from cyberattacks. Terrorists have become increasingly sophisticated online, in particular Daesh, through the use of social media propaganda to encrypted apps, he adds. “As Daesh loses more and more control of physical territory, it seems likely that they will increasingly focus their efforts on cyber space. The cyber conflict with Daesh has a long way to run yet,” Mr Prince notes. The world has yet to see a major terrorist-driven cyberattack, but Mr Prince believes the consequences of this type of attack could be destructive. He warned that the threat of an insider attack is particularly real.

Pool Re warns of changing terror threat

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