African cities weak in terms of resilience

African cities need to build resilience if they are to thrive and cope with a series of risks that could severely impact their ability to grow. According to the 2018 Lloyd’s City Risk Index, 47 countries across Africa and the Middle East, including Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt, are classified as either “weak” or “very weak” in terms of resilience. Of the very weak cities, 19 are in Africa and include all Nigerian locations. The good news is that Lloyd’s believes the region has an opportunity to improve the resilience of its cities in a way that older economies cannot. Much of the urban infrastructure in this region is yet to be built, particularly in Africa, which is urbanising faster than any other continent in the world. This affords countries the opportunity to build-in urban resilience at the planning stage. The index has defined GDP at risk (GDP@Risk) and warns of a $31.42bn expected loss in 28 African cities. Among the top three risks are interstate conflict and civil conflict, according to the index. The cost to African cities is put at $7.88bn. Geopolitical and security risks will cost this region more than any other, says Lloyd’s, accounting for two thirds of the total for all risks. “The economic impact of these threats includes disruptions to production, tourist revenue and investment,” states the report. “Some drivers of civil unrest in this region are similar to those in other regions: the presence of large numbers of young people living in poverty, or the fact that 62% of Africans live without access to clean water, sanitation, and other basic services.” In terms of natural catastrophe and climate threats, earthquake, flood and drought are the costliest threats for cities in both regions. Lagos risks Lagos is the second-largest city in the region and fifth in the Middle East and Africa in terms of potential loss to its GDP. The largest city in oil-rich Nigeria, Lagos faces geopolitical and security threats. It tops the index’s ranking for civil conflict, with an expected loss of $2.07bn. Nigeria’s ongoing battle with Boko Haram makes it third in the world for expected GDP loss ($437m) due to terrorism. The report notes: “Lagos is a coastal city and will most likely be affected adversely by sea level rise caused by climate change. For example, flooding in 2017 caused disruption and economic loss in the Lekki and Victoria Island areas of the city. Rising water levels could also assist the spread of disease, and human pandemic is the fourth-costliest risk ($265m) facing the city.” Johannesburg risks The report states that, although Johannesburg has a similar-sized GDP to Lagos, it stands to lose $1.07bn of GDP as opposed to Lagos’s $4.42bn. Like many cities in this region, there are high levels of wealth disparity in Johannesburg, which make civil conflict the city’s costliest risk at $276m. While there are programmes aimed at improving living and working conditions for low-income residents of the city, about 20% of Johannesburg residents live in poverty. However, Lloyd’s warns: “Increasingly, sovereign debt is becoming a threat to economic growth. Standard & Poor’s and Fitch downgraded South Africa’s sovereign credit rating to junk class in 2017. “This has led to higher borrowing costs, which will impact on living costs and services in the country’s cities. It remains to be seen whether the new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, can restore faith in South Africa’s institutions, and restore investor and ratings agency confidence.” The good news is that city authorities in Johannesburg have shown commitment to building resilience in their city, the report notes. Infrastructural needs in fast-growing cities can often clash with environmental concerns, such as the need to protect wetlands. In Johannesburg in 2011, however, Lloyd’s says, the infrastructure and environmental departments were merged into a single unit. One outcome was a flagship development to “re-naturalise” a polluted and silted-up Lake Bruma into an ecological park and restore natural wetland biofilters to improve sewer- and storm-water infrastructure.

African cities weak in terms of resilience

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