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AIR says Hurricane Ida wind and storm losses up to $25bn

AIR Worldwide estimates that insured losses to onshore property resulting from Hurricane Ida’s winds and storm surge will range between $17bn and $25bn.

The loss estimate includes physical damage to property and contents from winds, wind-borne debris, storm surge and the impact of demand surge.

The industry loss estimates also reflect an adjustment to account for increased material and other repair costs in the current construction market. Hurricane precipitation-induced flood losses are not included in the AIR estimate.

AIR’s loss figure is potentially higher than those out earlier this week and closer to the $15bn-$25bn that emerged just after Ida struck.

Karen Clark & Company (KCC) has put losses at $18bn, with $40m in the Caribbean and the rest from wind and storm surge in the US.

The estimate includes privately insured damage to residential, commercial and industrial properties and automobiles. It does not include boats, offshore properties or National Flood Insurance Program losses.

Then CoreLogic, a California-based provider of property information to underwriters, placed insured flood and wind losses from Hurricane Ida between $14bn and $21bn.

The firm estimates that insured flood losses for residential and commercial properties in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama will be between $6bn and $9bn. This includes both storm surge and inland flooding. Insured wind losses are estimated at $8bn to $12bn.

But most industry sources agree that assessing Ida’s total cost will take a while yet. Post-event loss amplification could add to these initial modelled estimates, with Covid-19 creating loss-adjusting problems and potentially affecting rebuild costs. There are also the issues of rising inflation, material shortages leading to price increases and rising labour costs. These are issues that AIR has factored into its estimate today.

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