Climate change tops travel risk list for 2020

Climate change has topped a list of travel risks for 2020, according to poll of top ten threats by Riskline. The travel risk intelligence firm said the potential final year of the Trump administration in the US polled as the second-most dangerous security threat to travel for the coming year. Adam Schrader, director of operations at Riskline, said predictions for 2020 are challenging, but businesses must be prepared for the effect of ongoing and emerging trends to travel security. He said climate change carries unseen, long-term effects. “As droughts or floods destroy land and livelihoods…[they] become the catalysts for new violent conflicts and forced migration,” said Mr Schrader. He added that an end to Donald Trump’s presidency in 2020 “bodes ill for international peace”. Riskline’s top ten travel risks for 2020 1 Climate change and its impact on travel Torrential rainfall, devastating floods, severe storms, prolonged heatwaves and increased temperatures – leading variously to growing water scarcity, droughts and dangerous wildfires – cause business and travel disruption, as well as fatalities and power outages. Efforts to reverse the damage caused by climate change are insufficient. 2 A collapsing world order: US 2020, Brexit, US-China trade war The results of the Brexit referendum in the UK and the 2016 US presidential election continue to upend longstanding domestic political norms in both countries. The pro-Brexit and pro-Trump coalitions have mobilised social forces that will remain on the scene for years to come. The UK’s exit will cause major economic changes in the EU, which also faces further economic disruptions from the US-China trade war fallout. 3 Islamist terrorism Islamist terrorism will remain a risk for travellers in 2020 as former members of Islamic State (IS) could potentially carry out reprisal attacks following the death of former IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US-led raid in Syria in October 2019. Former IS fighters and IS-inspired individuals carry the risk of lone-wolf attacks in any country with large numbers of foreign visitors. 4 Far-right terrorism Far-right politicians and media organisations will gain further prominence in the western world in 2020, particularly as US President Trump intensifies his campaigning for the presidential election in November. Attacks similar to the March 2019 shootings at a mosque and an Islamic centre in Christchurch, New Zealand, and the August 2019 mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, remain possible particularly in the US, as right-wing groups gain more appeal and expand their presence in mainstream American politics. 5 Infectious disease outbreak amid ongoing migration Large and highly mobile populations, increasing urbanisation, weak government responses and deprived healthcare infrastructure, as well as attacks on healthcare workers in conflict zones, coupled with the effects of climate change, are all making outbreaks of diseases like Ebola, cholera, yellow fever and other mosquito-borne diseases more frequent. Scientists predict an 80% chance of an El Niño weather pattern occurring in 2020, bringing potentially disastrous heavy rainfall and long droughts to countries around the Pacific Ocean and paving the way for mosquito-borne diseases. 6 Internet outages and the increasing cost of business In 2018 and 2019, internet blackouts aimed at stopping the spread of anti-government protests cost Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Ethiopia, Chad, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Venezuela billions of dollars in lost economic activity. This tactic will continue to prevail in 2020. 7 Anti-systemic protests: democracy and nationalism In 2019, there was a considerable rise in anti-systemic protests across the world, notably in Latin America, parts of Europe, the Middle East and east Asia. As popular discontent with governments grows in many countries due to economic and social issues, expect these protest movements to grow in volume and frequency during 2020. In addition, nationalist sentiments have also been on the rise across Europe, highlighted by mass protests for independence/self-determination in Catalonia. Meanwhile, the rise of broad anti-corruption fronts has pressured incumbents in places like Serbia, Romania, Hungary and Moldova. Other countries to look out for include the UK as Brexit looms. 8 MENA geopolitics: the role of Russia Since 2015, Russia has stepped up its military and economic engagements in the Middle East, primarily in Syria and Turkey, but also expanding ties with Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, at the expense of the US. Russia will continue to play a spoiler role in the region in 2020. 9 International sporting events Major sporting events like the Summer Olympics in Japan, the UEFA European Championship, the Copa América in Argentina and Colombia, and the three cycling Grand Tours are likely to pose risks to travellers in 2020. Potential risks include targeted terrorism due to large crowds and global media interest. Furthermore, disruptions to air travel across Europe are also possible if any tournament should coincide with prolonged labour strikes in the air sector. 10 Water shortage As heatwaves increase in intensity and duration, protests over water scarcity are likely to multiply in 2020, particularly in water-stressed nations like India and Pakistan, and in Middle Eastern countries like Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Violent clashes over increasingly scarce water and land resources can be expected in countries like Mali and Nigeria, while public discontent is likely to extend to pockets of extreme water scarcity in underdeveloped regions of Italy and Spain, as well as the US states of New Mexico and California.

Climate change tops travel risk list for 2020

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