Covid-19 could drive excess mortality rates for next decade: Swiss Re
Disease may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality
Excess mortality rates are continuing to be driven upwards by Covid-19 and could remain high for the next ten years, according to Swiss Re.
In a new report, Swiss Re Institute estimates that excess mortality rates could remain up to 3% higher than pre-pandemic levels in the US by 2033 and 2.5% higher in the UK, if the impact of the disease is not curtailed.
Four years since the peak of Covid-19, Swiss Re says excess mortality rates are still above pre-pandemic levels in many countries.
“Covid-19 may lead to longest period of peacetime excess mortality,” Swiss Re says. The report says that Covid-19 is a direct cause of death and a contributor to cardiovascular mortality.
Fluctuations in excess mortality tend to be short term but Covid-19 is averting previous trends and keeping excess mortality above the baseline, says Swiss Re. The US recorded excess mortality of between 3% and 7% in 2023. Excess mortality was between 5% and 8% in the UK in the same year.
Paul Murray, CEO of life and health reinsurance at Swiss Re, says Covid-19 is “far from over”.
The US reported an average of 1,500 Covid-19 deaths a week last year, Murray says, on par with the numbers linked to fentanyl and firearms.
“If this continues, our analysis suggests a potential scenario of elevated excess mortality extending over the next decade,” Murray says.
But he argues that excess mortality rates could be returned to zero if Covid-19 is brought under control through vaccinations for the vulnerable and medical advancements.
The current levels of excess mortality “are of concern” to insurers, the report says. “Excess mortality in the general population is an important indicator for insurers, as shifts in the major causes of death may require a reassessment of additional risk in their mortality portfolios.”
Swiss Re says insurers and reinsurers can manage the trend by adapting underwriting philosophy, risk appetites and mortality assumptions in pricing and reserving.
“Insurers can be proactive in targeting prevention programmes for policyholders, helping them in the joint effort to support longer, healthier lives,” it says.
