Europe hosts 77% of global corporate insolvencies: Allianz Trade

Corporate insolvencies in Western Europe are predicted to record a fourth year of increases in 2025, according to Allianz Trade, which forecasts a 3% rise from +12% in 2024, before beginning to fall, by 3%, in 2026. Allianz Trade says forecasts for 2025 would “push the region noticeably above its pre-pandemic number of cases”, by +23% compared to the 2016-2019 average. Publishing its Global Insolvency Index, Allianz Trade warns the number of insolvencies in France, which records the largest number of insolvent companies of all Western European markets, is expected to reach an all-time high in 2025, up 2% to a potential 67,500 cases in 2025 after a 17% rise in 2024, before falling by 4% in 2026. Other European markets are forecast to post double-digit growth in insolvency cases in 2025, with Allianz Trade forecasting a 10% increase in insolvency numbers in both Germany and Switzerland, and 17% in Italy, although all at a slower rate of increase recorded in 2024. Core markets France, Spain and the Netherlands are all expected to record a softer rise in insolvencies in 2025 at 2%, 3% and 4%, respectively. But five countries stand to see a reversal of the trend, with the UK, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark and Finland all forecast to see the number of business collapses fall in 2025. “This will mean that most countries would still post more insolvencies [in 2025] than in 2016-19, notably Switzerland (76% above), Sweden (35%), Austria (27%), Germany (25%), France (18%) and the UK (17%),” the report says. The number of Western Europe countries predicted to record a fall in insolvency numbers in 2026 will grow to 11 countries but with Germany, Italy and Ireland the main exceptions. Western Europe recorded a 12% increase in insolvencies in 2024, running above the global average of a 10% increase, accounting for 108,000 cases of the global total of 141,000 business collapses, or 76.5%. Allianz Trade said the rebound was softened by a 5% fall in insolvency numbers in the UK; Eurozone countries recorded a 19% increase in collapsed firms. Italy recorded the strongest increase in insolvency numbers of all Western European countries in 2024, up 45% to 11,926 insolvencies from an increase of 9% in 2023, driven by significant increases in construction (62%), manufacturing (58%) and trade (50%). But Allianz Trade notes that business insolvencies in Italy are still below pre-pandemic levels, in contrast to most other European countries. Further, the rate of increase is expected to slow over the next two years to +17% in 2025 and +2% in 2026. Ireland followed Italy with an increase of 32% in insolvencies in 2024, with the Netherlands at +31%, Sweden +24% and Germany +23%. “In Western Europe, nearly half of sectors have surpassed their pre-pandemic levels of business insolvencies, with the biggest increases in 2024 seen in transportation, construction and B2B services,” Allianz Trade says, with 66% of European sectors recording an increase in insolvencies in 2024. The UK was one of only nine countries globally, and two in Western Europe, to record a fall in insolvency numbers in 2024, down 5%, although from a ten-year high in 2023. Western Europe is forecast to record a drop in the number of insolvencies in 2026, with Allianz Trade predicting a fall of 3% across the region and the number of countries expected to see numbers fall increasing to 11, led by decreases in the UK and France. The two largest markets by number of insolvencies in 2024, the UK and France accounted for a combined 86% of insolvencies in Allianz Trade’s Western European index. However, a third consecutive year of lower insolvency numbers in the UK, forecast to decrease by a further 7% in 2026, and an increase of 2% in Germany, is expected to see Germany overtake the UK as the second-largest driver of collapsed businesses by number in 2026 to 24,900, behind France at 64,900. But Allianz Trade warns that a full-on trade war at a global level could push its forecast for European insolvencies even higher. It calculates that US tariffs on imports exceeding 25% would further increase insolvency forecasts by an additional 2.1pp to +8.3% globally in 2025 and by 4.8pp to +7.8% in 2026. By numbers, this would mean an additional 6,800 insolvencies in the US but 9,100 extra insolvencies in Western Europe, led by France (3,100), Germany (1,000), Italy (1,000), the UK (900) and the Netherlands (700).

Europe hosts 77% of global corporate insolvencies: Allianz Trade

Germany, Ireland and Italy are the only three Western Europe countries expected to see insolvency numbers continue to climb into 2026

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