Heat stress to be extreme risk for 71% of global food production by 2045

About three quarters of today’s global food production will face extreme risks from heat stress by 2045, according to a new study from Verisk Maplecroft. Heat stress already poses extreme risks to agriculture and food production in 20 countries, but Verisk Maplecroft forecasts the number of affected countries will rise to 64 by mid-century should temperatures warm by 2°C. “This will affect countries that currently account for 71% of global food production, with crops such as rice, cocoa and tomatoes set to be worst affected,” Verisk Maplecroft says. It warned that heat stress threatens the supply of key crops, especially in major economies such as China, India, Brazil and the US. It also jeopardises the health of outdoor workers. “Within a generation, a combination of rising global temperatures and humidity will make outdoor working increasingly difficult and even life-threatening,” the risk intelligence firms says. It added that extreme heat is a “cross-cutting risk”, damaging crops and lowering yields while causing fatigue and nausea among outdoor workers. “If emissions remain unchecked and temperatures continue to rise, extreme heat-related disruptions to global food supply chains will become increasingly common,” said Will Nichols, head of climate and resilience at Verisk Maplecroft. The report says rising temperatures will place additional strain on global food supply chains following the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which will in turn raise prices and trigger social unrest. India, which produced 12% of global food supplies in 2020, is the largest agricultural producer already rated as extreme risk for heat stress, Verisk Maplecroft analysis reveals. In May this year, India banned wheat exports after a heatwave damaged its harvest. This further reduced global supplies of wheat already affected by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Only Eritrea, Djibouti, Bangladesh, UAE, South Sudan, and Oman have a higher risk of heat stress than India, Verisk Maplecroft says. It explains that Africa is home to 11 of the 20 countries that are already facing extreme heat stress risks. Rice producers Vietnam and Pakistan also meet the extreme risk criteria. Verisk Maplecroft forecasts heat stress will pose an extreme risk to agriculture in over 30% of countries by 2045. Nine of the 10 worst-affected countries are projected to be in Africa, the report says. Brazil, the world’s third largest agricultural producer, is expected to fall into the extreme risk category by 2045, along with China and the US. The impact on the US will vary widely between states. Verisk Maplecroft says heat stress could pose an extreme risk to agriculture in 11 US southern states by 2045, spreading from just Florida today. Verisk Maplecroft adds that rising heat stress is a growing problem for more developed markets. Seven of the ten countries forecast by Verisk Maplecroft to see the largest increase in heat stress risk by 2045 are in Europe. Montenegro, currently carrying a medium risk and in 127th place in the ranking, is expected to fall into extreme risk by 2045 and take 52nd place – the sharpest deterioration of any country. Italy, currently ranked 143rd for heat stress risk, is expected to move from a medium-risk country to high risk by 2045 and move into 82nd place. Verisk Maplecroft warns that additional pressure on global food supplies could trigger other risks. “As shown by Europe’s intense summer heatwave, which sparked wildfires in Spain, France and the UK, governments and businesses everywhere need to factor the immediate and secondary impacts of exceptionally high, and rising, temperatures into their resilience planning,” it says. “Companies and investors need to be aware that in highly agrarian economies disruptions to agricultural production will have huge implications for food security, but will also impact employment, national incomes and credit ratings,” adds Nichols. “Countries facing falling incomes and dwindling food supplies will struggle to mitigate climate impacts or address issues like poverty that not only upend the operating environment, but could also trigger humanitarian crises, political unrest, or even conflict,” he says.

Heat stress to be extreme risk for 71% of global food production by 2045

Number of extreme risk countries will triple within a generation

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