HMPV not the next pandemic: International SOS

Dr Irene Lai, global medical director, at International SOS, the Singapore-based international health and security services for global travel, belives we should exercise caution about the worrying spread of Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in China and India but says it is not the next pandemic to rival Covid-19. Dr Lai stressed, however, that the next pandemic may still not be far away. “There is no new virus. Everything that we’re seeing is a normal respiratory season in China, as in elsewhere. The respiratory illness season is caused by many different viruses, including human metapneumovirus, HMPV,” she said. Dr Lai pointed out that this virus itself is not new. First identified in the Netherlands in 2001, HMPV spreads through direct contact between people, or when someone touches a contaminated surface. The virus leads to a mild upper respiratory tract infection for most people. It is usually almost indistinguishable from flu. Symptoms for most people include a cough, a fever and blocked nose. “It is relatively new in terms of being studied because it was only discovered as a new virus in 2001 but when we look back at it, it’s probably been causing illness for over 50 years,” explained Dr Lai. The expert pointed out that only some jurisdictions are now including HPMV in their surveillance and their reporting. “So in many places, even though they’ve had this virus around for many years, causing illness, it hasn’t been tested for and it’s not reported on,” she said. Dr Lai said: “As the news has cropped up about this outbreak in China, many of the Ministries of Health are putting out information to their citizens to say, hey, we know about this disease. Yes, we have a couple of cases that we’ve detected in our country. We’ve had it before. We’ve seen it before. Our hospitals, our healthcare systems, we’re geared up to cope with the seasonal flu, seasonal respiratory illness that we all usually see around wintertime.” International SOS stated in its 2025 Risk Outlook that it expects another pandemic in the next 15 years but Dr Lai said that this is not it. “[I]s there a risk for another pandemic? Well, yes, absolutely. And I did state in our Risk Outlook that I felt that another pandemic might occur in the next 15 years. But will it be due to HMPV? No, it won’t,” she said. Dr Lai’s opinion is backed up by the World Health Organization (WHO). “Currently, in some countries in the temperate Northern hemisphere, influenza-like illness (ILI) and/or acute respiratory infection (ARI) rates have increased in recent weeks and are above baseline levels, following usual seasonal trends. Seasonal influenza activity is elevated in many countries in the Northern hemisphere,” it states on the disease outbreak news section of its website. “Where surveillance data is available, trends in RSV detections currently vary by region, with decreases reported in most regions except in North America. Recently, there has been interest in HMPV cases in China, including suggestions of hospitals being overwhelmed. HMPV is a common respiratory virus found to circulate in many countries in winter through to spring, although not all countries routinely test and publish data on trends in HMPV,” explains the WHO. The WHO said that, while some cases of HMPV can be hospitalised with bronchitis or pneumonia, most people infected with it have mild upper respiratory symptoms similar to the common cold and recover after a few days. Based on data published by China, covering the period up to 29 December 2024, acute respiratory infections have increased during recent weeks and detections of seasonal influenza, rhinovirus, RSV, and HMPV, particularly in northern provinces of China have also increased. The WHO noted that the observed increase in respiratory pathogen detections is within the range expected for this time of year during the Northern hemisphere winter. “In China, influenza is the most commonly detected respiratory pathogen currently affecting people with acute respiratory infections. WHO in contact with Chinese health officials and has not received any reports of unusual outbreak patterns. Chinese authorities report that the health care system is not overwhelmed and there have been no emergency declarations or responses triggered. WHO continues to monitor respiratory illnesses at global, regional and country levels through collaborative surveillance systems, and provides updates as needed,” added the WHO.

HMPV not the next pandemic: International SOS

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