Insured losses from severe weather in 2023 will set new Q1 record: BMS

Severe weather in the US in the first quarter of 2023 will cost insurers between $7bn and $9.5bn, according to estimates from BMS Re, after a series of thunderstorm losses from hail, tornadoes and strong winds. A total of 12 severe weather events were recorded between January and end of March, with insured losses expected to set a new record for Q1 2023, surpassing Q1 2017.

Andrew Siffert, vice president and senior meteorologist at BMS, said a high occurrence of severe weather in the US will be “costly” for insurers. Three $1bn+ events in March, including the Rolling Fork and Little Rock tornado weather systems, will drive losses for insurers, Siffert said.

“On a CPI-adjusted basis, the January-March first quarter US severe weather losses appear to be at or close to a modern-day record,” Siffert said. He added that areas around Dallas and Fort Worth into the southeast and up into the middle Mississippi River Valley have all seen an unusual amount of severe weather activity so far this year.

Siffert said climate conditions are shaping up for an eventful spring season too.

“It is impossible to forecast how the spring severe weather season will unfold and where severe weather will strike in detail. Still, it does appear that the dice are loaded for a higher occurrence of severe weather this spring season,” Siffert said.