Just over a decade to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN report

Natural catastrophes will become significantly more serious in as little as a decade if global warming temperatures rise by half a degree to 1.5°C, according to a United Nations report from its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that warns current efforts to meet targets under the Paris Agreement are not enough. The report also says that missing the 2°C target under the Paris Agreement would be far worse than first anticipated. The Paris Agreement, adopted by 195 nations in 2015, aims to limit the increase of human-induced global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and “pursue efforts” to limit warming to 1.5°C. The new report by the IPCC says that stated ambitions to reduce CO2 emissions under the Paris Agreement will not be enough to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The IPCC said current global temperatures run at 1°C higher than pre-industrial levels, and have been linked to floods, hurricanes, droughts and wildfires. “One of the key messages that comes out very strongly from this report is that we are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice” said Panmao Zhai, co-chair of IPCC Working Group I. The IPCC said urgent and unprecedented change is needed to keep temperature changes within 1.5°C, but it is possible. Leading scientists that wrote the report say global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 at current rates. The report calls for a 45% cut in CO2 emissions by 2030, with the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. “Limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible within the laws of chemistry and physics but doing so would require unprecedented changes,” said Jim Skea, co-chair of IPCC Working Group II. Other changes include reforestation and a move to electric transport systems. Scientists say the difference between a 1.5°C world and 2°C is substantial. By 2100, global sea levels would rise by 10cm less in a 1.5°C scenario against 2°C, while coral reefs would be virtually wiped out if global temperatures rose to 2°C. Keeping global temperatures at a rise of 1.5°C would give 10% of coral a chance of survival. The report adds that impact on biodiversity and ecosystems would be lower in a 1.5°C scenario, with extinction and species loss a greater risk in a 2°C world. It goes on to say that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C would mean 50% fewer people exposed to water scarcity. “Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being,” said Priyardarshi Shukla, co-chair of IPCC Working Group III. “Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5°C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, co-chair of IPCC Working Group III. The IPCC added that should global temperatures overshoot 1.5°C, techniques to remove CO2 from the air, which are untested on a large scale and carry risks to sustainable development, would need to be used more frequently. The report – approved by the IPCC ahead of the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland this December when the Paris Agreement will be reviewed – says action is already underway to limit global warming, but these efforts must accelerate. Debra Roberts, co-chair of IPCC Working Group II, said: “The next few years are probably the most important in our history.”

Just over a decade to limit climate change catastrophe, warns UN report

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