Learning lessons from the 2019 cyclones

Stakeholders need to go above and beyond if they are to learn vital lessons from the catastrophic cyclones that swept across southeastern Africa last year A new report shows southern Africa has made progress in resilience-building in recent years and, to further strengthen the region against natural hazard events, recommends more attention to pre-event planning. These efforts should be accompanied by inclusive policies and investments that are locally tailored, risk-informed and climate-smart, according to Zurich and its Flood Resilience Alliance members. Crucially, the report notes: “This will require stakeholders to go beyond business as usual to disaster risk reduction (DRR) and development being fundamentally integrated into, or sequenced with, humanitarian response planning and funding.” In the wake of the deadly storms, Zurich and its Flood Resilience Alliance members examined issues around housing and infrastructure, as well as the critical need for forecasting and early warning systems. Cyclone Idai, the deadliest cyclone to come ashore in Africa, killed more than 1,300 people and was the worst humanitarian disaster from a natural hazard event of 2019. At the time, the UN estimated it had destroyed some $1bn of infrastructure. A month after it made landfall near Beira, Mozambique, Cyclone Kenneth arrived with winds up to 137mph, as the strongest such storm ever to hit the region. The area was vulnerable despite progress made in the last decade in DRR, according to the latest Post Event Review Capability (PERC) study. But the deadly storms that hit Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe revealed a lack of understanding about how to prepare for such events. “PERC researchers found that while the storms’ expected landfall locations and windspeeds were accurately forecast and agencies were put on high alert, community understanding of how wind and rain would impact them was practically non-existent,” says Michael Szönyi, Zurich Insurance Group’s flood resilience programme lead. “Risk reduction and preparedness for disasters saves lives.” The UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction says that, from 1998 to 2017, disaster-hit countries reported direct economic losses of $2.9trn, of which climate-related disasters accounted for $2.2trn. Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe are all familiar with disasters and there has been significant investment in the past several decades in weather forecasting and disaster management, particularly response. In the report, interviewees in all three countries reflect on these investments, outlining clear successes that prevented wind and flood impacts from being even more costly and deadly. The creation and strengthening of disaster management institutions in Mozambique and Malawi, for example, led to better coordination in the lead-up and immediate response to the cyclones, facilitating the allocation of resources and post-disaster assessments. While flooding forecasts remain a challenge, increased forecasting accuracy has improved early warning capacity, with authorities in all three countries able to disseminate warnings about the cyclones several days in advance of landfall. Additionally, there were clear successes in all three countries that helped to contain cholera and other post-flood diseases. Urban drainage measures in Beira, Mozambique also reduced the flood impact in comparison with areas that did not have these measures. Successes notwithstanding, challenges remain, the report concludes. Looking ahead Experts say that only 8% of losses are covered by international aid and the insurance sector only pays out on 3% of disaster-induced losses across the world’s 77 poorest countries, many of which are in Africa. Globally, Swiss Re's economists estimate that in the past ten years, about 66% of all economic losses from natural catastrophes have not been insured. “That's a huge protection gap – and nowhere is it more pronounced than in Africa,” warns Beat Strebel, market executive, Middle East and Africa, Swiss Re. For Cyclone Idai, for example, the Swiss Re Institute reports that the overall economic loss for Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe was about $2bn, of which only 7% was covered by insurance – a 93% protection gap. Interviewees in the Zurich report identify multiple entry points for supporting communities to build resilience to future events, including strengthening disaster risk awareness, improving early warning systems, protecting critical infrastructure, scaling up resistant housing and integrating DRR programming into recovery and development programming. However, because of the novel intensity and scale of the cyclones, particularly Cyclone Idai, interviewees reported challenges linking early warning to early action, and that early action was hindered by the availability of protective infrastructure in all three countries. Idai’s extended period of wind and rain in Malawi, the extreme winds and enormous volume of precipitation and floodwaters in Mozambique, and the overwhelming intensity of rainfall that resulted in catastrophic landslides in Zimbabwe, were unlike anything impacted communities had seen before or could imagine. Under the best of circumstances, that makes early warning extremely difficult and yet this is one of the principle challenges communities will face with climate change – events larger, more intense or different, or in different locations from anything previously experienced, Zurich warns. This highlights the critical importance of ensuring that end-to-end warning systems are contextualised and developed with community involvement – from monitoring, to the development of messages, to message dissemination – with the goal of improving comprehension and lifesaving action. Additionally, these efforts should be coupled with scenario-based approaches, climate science and expanded hazard mapping to guide evacuation and safe-shelter identification, coupled with increased focus on robust and hazard-resistant construction, suggests the report. Critical infrastructure The success in containing post-flood diseases was a significant achievement in light of the breakdown of critical infrastructure – including water supplies, sanitation, roads and communication – in impacted locations in Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. These infrastructure challenges echo findings from other post-event reviews – virtually everywhere across the globe there is ongoing need for identifying and protecting critical infrastructure and developing contingency plans for response to potential failure. Climate resilience can be improved via scenario-based planning, conducted at multiple scales. Coupling this with non-structural options, such as nature-based solutions, can be particularly effective for hazards that are rapidly intensifying due to climate change, for example along Beira’s coastline where concrete flood walls were heavily damaged. Maintenance, and ensuring the long-term sustainability and operability of equipment, are further key components of this scenario planning, as they are often the weak point resulting in failure. Study findings underscore the need for materials, knowledge, skills and funding at all levels, including at the community level, to ensure the longevity of key infrastructure, response and forecasting equipment. Localised resources should be coupled with a balance between local and international support to maximise the advantages of both. Among the study’s recommendations is the need to prepare with adequate materials, knowledge, skills and funding at all levels to ensure the resilience of key infrastructure systems. “Prioritising and funding resilience-building and DRR efforts should be an integral part of a humanitarian response and any development programming that follows,” says Mr Szönyi. “It is also a critical step for climate-change adaptation in a region suffering from increasing droughts, floods and tropical storms.” There are questions around whether people in highly flood-prone areas should be resettled, the report notes. It examines the key issues that must be taken into account when considering resettlement, such as the use of local knowledge and experience, hazard-mapping, whether cultural identities can be maintained, and locating people in places where they can thrive.

Learning lessons from the 2019 cyclones

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