Mass troop deployment in South Africa only a stopgap

A new intelligence and analysis practice, Dragonfly, has warned South Africa faces further violence in the medium term and that mass troop deployment is only a stopgap solution. The warning comes as insurer Chaucer reports the number of large protests and demonstrations globally has risen 36% since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, from an average of 355 per year in the decade to 2009, to 482 per year in the decade following the global financial crisis (GFC). According to Chaucer, the rise in the number of protests has generated increased interest in strikes, riots and civil commotion insurance insurance, a special category of cover that protects businesses against losses incurred due to protests and other civil unrest. Increases in large protests have been notable across Africa, with protest numbers for sub-Saharan Africa increasing by 48% (59 to 88 per annum). As a result of the GFC, some developing economies saw drops in exports, aid and capital inflows. This led to unsustainable public finances and unpopular cuts in public spending and subsidies. The last decade saw the Arab Spring spread across the Middle East and north Africa, as well as a steady increase in protests around economic issues in sub-Saharan Africa. These included unrest in Nigeria, related to fuel prices and security issues, and South African protests about student fees and wage freezes. Chaucer fears the evidence of the last decade suggests that more political unrest will arise in the coming years, in the wake of Covid-19. Meanwhile, Thomas Murphy, strategic intelligence manager at Dragonfly, anticipates the current socioeconomic situation in South Africa is likely to lead to further outbreaks of violence in the medium term, posing serious issues for organisations operating in the country. He said: “The lawlessness in parts of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal last week was more widespread and violent than many anticipated. The deployment of around 25,000 troops, the largest domestic military deployment since the end of apartheid, has helped contain the situation for now. However, dire socioeconomic conditions, with unemployment and poverty rife, will persist, meaning violence is likely to return to the streets of South Africa in the coming months. “The recent violence, much of which was organised via social media platforms, was politically-motivated, rather than being a popular revolt, with the arrest of the former President Jacob Zuma pushing tensions to boil over. That said, the current socioeconomic conditions in South Africa, and the factional tensions in the ANC, mean that another outbreak of widespread and disruptive violence and unrest is a distinct possibility in the coming months. The last week has shown that the police are unable to effectively deal with coordinated protests and lawlessness.” He contined: “The inadequacy of the security forces in periods of unrest has potential implications for organisations operating in South Africa. Most notably, it has highlighted that it is problematic for companies to rely solely on the police for security provision in times of crisis. The unrest last week meant that non-state groups such as armed private security contractors, local vigilante groups and taxi unions tried to step in to protect key sites. Such groups have frequently clashed with criminals over the past week, with evidence of vigilante groups seemingly indiscriminately targeting civilians.”

Mass troop deployment in South Africa only a stopgap

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