Rising anxiety amid geopolitical tension to fuel people risk in 2025

Cyberattacks, political risks, climate change and the cost of living are leading to unprecedented levels of anxiety for business and employees, according to a survey and report from travel and medical assistance group International SOS. Cyber and stress and burnout are cited as the risks most likely to impact business and its people in 2025, both flagged by 78% of organisations. Next comes the impact of the cost-of-living crisis (75%) and mental health (70%), according to the 2025 Risk Outlook from International SOS. Some 65% of risk professionals surveyed believe risks have increased over the past year, with this perception highest among respondents in Europe and the US. This is the fifth consecutive year in which risks are perceived to be increasing. The report describes an increasingly “fragmented” world that is becoming more “anarchic, complex, polarised and unpredictable”. Three-quarters of decision-makers surveyed see social and political unrest as a top risk, while over two-thirds (69%) of organisations believe geopolitical tensions will have a significant impact on their business and/or employees in 2025. The interconnected nature of today’s risks is creating an environment where issues escalate quickly and unpredictably, according to Sally Llewellyn, global security director at International SOS. “Geopolitical tensions are triggering supply chain disruptions and cyber threats, while misinformation and disinformation amplify confusion, eroding trust within organisations and across borders. These complexities demand a shift from reactive to predictive strategies, leveraging intelligence-driven insights and cross-functional collaboration,” she said. “While the challenges are significant, organisations that take a systematic approach to understanding and mitigating these layered risks can not only protect their people and operations but also strengthen their resilience in an era of uncertainty,” she added. According to James Wood, regional security director in northern Europe at International SOS, the geopolitical landscape is fragmenting, with a “new world disorder” and the rise of nationalism. The new world disorder is seeing a shift in political power, he said. A wider range of countries – such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia – are becoming more active and opportunistic in international relations, alongside an expanded BRIC alliance. At the same time, existing international institutions and alliances like Nato are being strained in the new world order, and traditional leadership countries like France and Germany are being challenged. At a local level, nativism is on the rise and countries are becoming more inward-looking, with the twin pressures of populism and protectionism, as seen in recent election results, explained Wood. He expects countries will increasingly adopt policies focused on onshoring, resource nationalism, border controls, trade and industrial strategies. Governments will also increasingly rely on sanctions and regulations to manage emerging technologies, including cryptocurrencies, privacy issues and artificial intelligence, he said. “These components as we progress into 2025 are going to have a material impact on the geopolitical landscape to come, and indeed on how threats are tackled and managed. The first few months of 2025 will be very instructive in terms of what that looks like at a global scale,” said Wood. In a more fragmented world, rogue states will have the ability to operate with impunity. The fragmented world gives proxy groups, militias, insurgents and mercenaries the freedom to act, impacting transport, trade and security, as seen with the Houthi rebels that have disrupted shipping in the Red Sea in 2024, said Wood. “These actors will increasingly help determine the new world order, especially in locations like the Red Sea, Sudan and Syria, and more in 2025. These elements around geopolitical dynamics will have an even more significant impact on organisations and their people as we go into 2025,” he said. The fragmenting international environment will make people-risk management more difficult in 2025, he warned. “It’s true to say that risk managers have finite sources and capabilities to monitor a greater number, range and variety of threat actors, only some of which are nation states. So it’s really important to be across those components as we move into 2025 and beyond,” he said. The report highlights the growing risks of mental health for employees amid fears of war, climate change and the cost of living. Many of the risks that organisations perceive as most likely, but feel they are less prepared to manage, relate to employee wellness. These risks include stress, burnout, mental health, and problems caused by the impact of the cost of living or geopolitical tensions, noted Dr Katherine O’Reilly, medical directors and International SOS. “The continued rise in mental health issues globally is an ongoing trend and it will persist. It is being fuelled by many factors, such as growing risks to our existence, feelings of inevitability, hopelessness and the lack of control and unpredictable nature of global events around us, which feed in to feelings of anxiety and depression,” she said. Feelings of anxiety are being caused by fears about conflict and climate change, and intensified by doomscrolling and fake news, explained O’Reilly. “When we talk about risk, it’s about having a sense of control. Anxiety takes over when we feel we have a lack of control, whether in our daily lives or at work. So for us as individuals or organisations, to get through it and manage anxiety levels, it is important to focus on what you can do, and what you can control,” she said.

Rising anxiety amid geopolitical tension to fuel people risk in 2025

Anxiety taking over as workers feel loss of control

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