Terrorism: seven of the ten highest-risk countries now in Africa

Africa is home to seven out of the world’s worst spots for terrorism, according to a new report. The Terrorism Intensity Index from Verisk Maplecroft warns that violence in Africa’s terrorist hotspots is getting worse and the risk of attacks is rising in many countries across the region, including some previously considered safe. The quarterly ranking of 198 countries shows sub-Saharan Africa is now home to seven of the world’s ten riskiest locations, making it the worst-performing region globally. And 2021 is likely to be no better. “Terrorist groups operating throughout sub-Saharan Africa are unlikely to lose their momentum in the next year,” commented Alexandre Raymakers, senior Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. “As the economic fallout from Covid-19 empties government coffers, governments will struggle to implement the comprehensive counterterrorism strategies required to contain these security threats.” Companies should now invest more time and energy into identifying emerging threats and adopting precautionary measures to mitigate against future security risks. “For operators in Africa’s growing numbers of hotspots, this is now an imperative,” added Mr Raymakers. With a further nine countries witnessing significant increases in the frequency and severity of attacks, the findings suggest that the reach and effectiveness of terrorist groups in Africa is growing. The last quarter alone saw a 13% rise in terrorist incidents across the continent, compared to the previous period. The trajectory of these trends should be a major cause of concern for the region’s governments, as well as the mining and energy companies operating there, warns Verisk Maplecroft. Added to that, the report also finds that in the last 12 months, four of the five countries seeing the biggest deterioration in the Terrorism Intensity Index were in Africa. Burundi saw the greatest increase in risk, rising 37 places to become the 27th riskiest nation globally. Ivory Coast (30th) and Tanzania (32nd) registered similar shifts, while Chad, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique and Senegal also saw their scores significantly worsen. The only African countries to register improvements in the index were Rwanda and Central African Republic. Sustained violence across Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger Nigeria and Cameroon shows no sign of abating and the risks are spreading across the Sahel and the wider region. Many of these countries are now among the world’s riskiest locations, according to the index. With the worst possible score of 0.00 out of 10.00, Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia and Syria are tied as the highest-risk countries globally; but they are closely followed by Cameroon (ranked sixth), Mozambique (seventh), Niger (eighth), DR Congo (ninth) and Iraq (tenth). Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, is ranked 11th. All are categorised as ‘extreme risk’ in the index. West Africa is currently shouldering the brunt of terror attacks. This mostly results from a significant deterioration of the security situation in the Sahel and an intensification of Boko Haram attacks in Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon. Although the motivations, momentum and military capabilities of groups vary considerably, Verisk Maplecroft believes it likely that the extremist groups operating in west Africa are seeking to exploit the fragility of national governments weakened by the Covid-19 pandemic. The deteriorating situation in west Africa represents a series of risks for extractive operators across the region – not only for the physical security of their assets, but also their personnel and distribution routes. Mining companies operating in the Sahel are currently the most exposed – although terrorist groups have so far refrained from directly attacking major gold and uranium sites. Jihadist groups operating in the three Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger will likely continue to avoid directly attacking mining sites, instead focusing their resources on government and military installations as they seek to weaken government authority and extend their territorial control. But mining operators that depend on logistical routes from ports on the west African coast are likely to witness more ambushes and rent-seeking roadblocks when crossing into Burkina Faso and Niger in the year ahead. Operators in states in the midst of intensifying terror campaigns, such as Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Mali and Mozambique, will continue to face significant challenges in mitigating the physical risk to their assets and exposure to reputational risks associated with the actions of state security forces. As is the case for natural gas operators in Mozambique, companies will remain almost wholly dependent on governments to guarantee the security of their assets. Increased instances of human rights violations by security forces will therefore pose a major reputational risk for firms closely associated with host governments.

Terrorism: seven of the ten highest-risk countries now in Africa

Want to read this article?

Read Next

Climate and net-zero disclosure falling short, finds EY

Legal sector faces surge in cyberattacks

UK and US agencies release joint AI cybersecurity guidelines

UK exposed to millions in additional flood losses from climate change

Cost of electronic vehicle repair wiping out sustainability gains

Climate and net-zero disclosure falling short, finds EY

Legal sector faces surge in cyberattacks

UK and US agencies release joint AI cybersecurity guidelines

UK exposed to millions in additional flood losses from climate change

Cost of electronic vehicle repair wiping out sustainability gains

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. You can review our Cookie Policy here.

Want to read this article?

Read Next

Climate and net-zero disclosure falling short, finds EY

Legal sector faces surge in cyberattacks

UK and US agencies release joint AI cybersecurity guidelines

UK exposed to millions in additional flood losses from climate change

Cost of electronic vehicle repair wiping out sustainability gains

Related Articles

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. You can review our Cookie Policy here.