WTW updates hailstorm model with NASA satellite data

WTW will update and improve its hailstorm models after extending its partnership with the Germany's Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) in collaboration with NASA. Working with KIT, the NASA Disasters Program and the NASA Langley Research Center, WTW said the new phase of their collaboration, which has been running for more than a decade, will focus on using state-of-the-art datasets and research to address the challenges posed by hailstorms, and in particular the impacts of climate change, to improve the understanding and modelling of hail risk. WTW said hailstorms are among the costliest of severe weather perils, particularly in Europe where insured losses from hail have been significant in recent years. “As climate change modifies hail formation processes and adds complexity to this peril, understanding how hailstorm characteristics – such as frequency, intensity, and spatial distribution – might evolve has become a top priority for (re)insurers and researchers alike,” WTW said. The Willis European hail model dates back to 2014, when it was the first to cover the whole of Europe, and has since been widely adopted by insurers and reinsurers across the region, WTW said. The new phase of the collaboration will update and improve the original Willis model through a refined and extended time series of overshooting cloud top detections from satellites by NASA, which serve as proxies for severe storms/hailstorms, as well as a new model setup for hail hazard assessment. Benjamin Scarino, research scientist at NASA’s Langley Research Center, said: “With state-of-the-art identification techniques, we can quantify severe storm distribution and frequency with an exceptional level of consistency and persistence that’s only granted by satellite measurements.” “Long-term satellite data records allow us to provide the (re)insurance industry, project partners, and the research community with valuable insights into severe storm activity and risk,” he added. Researchers will also study how climate factors impact hailstorm characteristics. “Combining advanced simulations, high-resolution satellite data, and detailed trend analysis of ambient conditions, the project aims to deliver new insights into the spatial and temporal distribution of hail risks across Europe,” WTW said. Dr Daniel Bannister, weather and climate risks research lead at WTW, explained that insurers and reinsurers need a better understanding of hail-related risk: “Hailstorms are a growing concern for the (re)insurance industry, particularly as climate change introduces new uncertainties around their behaviour,” he said. Professor Michael Kunz, leader of the Atmospheric Risks working group at KIT, added: “Our collaboration with WTW and NASA allows us to integrate cutting-edge science and innovative methods into business and economic sectors, impacting the public at large. It’s crucial to deepen our understanding of how climate change influences hail formation and how this, in turn, translates into risk.”

WTW updates hailstorm model with NASA satellite data

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