Maritime risks on increase across Africa

In 2016 there was a 21% decrease in the number of attacks and boardings of ships globally. However the picture in Africa is more mixed with the Gulf of Guinea recording the largest increase of anywhere in the world with a 63% increase in events, according to a new report from Control Risks. Sebastian Villyn, global lead consultant on maritime risks for Control Risks, warned cases of high-severity maritime terrorism and kidnaps increased and several emerging trends are likely to pose threats to maritime operators in 2017. Hijack figures Control Risks recorded an 83% decrease in hijacks globally in 2016 compared with 2015. In Nigeria, there has been a year-on-year drop in such hijacks from 2011 to 2016. Mr Villyn said: “The business model has proved cumbersome, requiring coordination between the pirates, a support vessel that the fuel can be siphoned over to, and a prospective buyer. The process can take between 12 and 48 hours to successfully complete. “In comparison, a kidnap can take as little as 20 minutes. Siphoning of fuel also requires knowledge of ship types and assurance that the vessel is loaded. Not all groups have this knowledge and non-tanker types such as bulk carriers have been erroneously targeted.” He explained hijacking-for-ransom was the primary business model for Somali pirate groups. Somali pirates have displayed very limited intent to target larger commercial ships in the past few years, with only one confirmed attack recorded in 2016. “However, the hijack of a bunkering tanker off the autonomous state of Puntland (Somalia) on 13 March 2017 – the first successful hijack of a commercial vessel since May 2012 – demonstrates that Somalia-based groups retain the capability to carry out such attacks,” he warned. Mr Villyn predicted the downward trend in the Gulf of Guinea will continue in 2017, as Nigerian naval forces continue their targeting of organised fuel syndicates. However, refined fuel products will continue to be a sought-after commodity on the black market and isolated cases will occur. Meanwhile, Somali pirate activity will remain limited in 2017, provided that commercial vessels continue to implement vessel-hardening measures and sail at an appropriate distance from the Somali coast. Kidnap risk However, he said: “In stark contrast to the decline in hijacks, maritime kidnaps increased by 44% globally in 2016, driven by an uptick in the abduction of crew from commercial vessels in the Gulf of Guinea compared with 2015. 2016 saw the highest levels of maritime crime in the area since 2008. The vast majority of cases were recorded off Nigeria, specifically off the Niger delta states. Between January and June 2016, there was an average of almost three offshore kidnaps per month. Mr Villyn said: “This was largely driven by an announced cut in funding to the Niger delta amnesty programme for former militants, from NGN65bn (around US$206m) to NGN20bn (around US$64m). “However, it was exacerbated by the activities of criminal groups in Bayelsa state (Nigeria) after the Bayelsa state gubernatorial election in January 2016 as weapons brought into the area during the election cycle were later used in offshore attacks. The frequency of attacks dropped significantly between July and December 2016, following increased naval patrols and back-payments of delayed amnesty stipends.” Kidnapping levels off Nigeria in 2016 ended up below those of 2010, 2013 and 2014. However, few arrests have been made of kidnapping groups and little has been done to uproot these gangs. Instead, shipping operators have become better at responding and several unsuccessful kidnap attempts in 2016 point to improved security measures deployed by vessels. Dedicated Nigerian kidnapping groups that are almost exclusively financially motivated will continue to pose a high threat to crew in the coming year. This has been the most financially successful business model for groups engaged in maritime crime in the past five years. Terrorism Maritime terrorism and militancy in the Middle East and north Africa stood out as the most significant evolving threat for maritime operators in 2016. Control Risks recorded a sharp increase in cases of militants or terrorists targeting port infrastructure, naval and commercial vessels, or offshore platforms. Libya and Yemen accounted for most of these, witnessing several high-profile attacks. Mr Villyn said: “Political fragmentation in Libya has resulted in a lack of rule of law and rivalry between competing legislatures and armed groups will continue to pose significant security and operational threats to ships. “The primary threat will be sudden changes to control of key oil-exporting ports in the Gulf of Sirte, which will lead to disruption and uncertainty.” However, he believed, 2017 is likely to see a decline in attacks on coastal infrastructure by militants affiliated to IS. This is a result of the group’s loss of territory in and around Sirte since May 2016, and in Benghazi, which has reduced the group’s capabilities. In Nigeria, more than 25 new militant groups emerged in the Niger delta during 2016. The most prominent was the Niger Delta Avengers, which claimed at least three attacks on underwater pipelines and an unmanned offshore platform. Ongoing talks between militant groups and the Nigerian authorities have reduced overall levels of violence, including attacks on pipelines, in 2017 compared with 2016. Meanwhile, the Nigerian government’s reinstatement of amnesty payouts for former militants in the 2017 budget is likely to stem the emergence of further self-declared ‘militant’ groups. Anchorage crime Anchorage crime remains one of the most widely reported threats to commercial shipping globally, with regional trends shifting in line with the capability of local security forces to respond. Control Risks’ top three ports for recorded anchorage crime in 2015 – Belawan (Indonesia), Vung Tau (Vietnam) and Chittagong (Bangladesh) – have seen decreases in activity and were replaced by Apapa-Lagos (Nigeria – fifth in 2015), Pointe-Noire (Congo) and Callao (Peru). Looking forward Mr Villyn concluded: “The trends seen in 2016 highlight the dynamic nature of groups engaged in offshore crime. The interplay between sociopolitical developments onshore and the frequency of offshore crime was particularly visible in the Gulf of Guinea. Security force responses in the different regions will also play a key role in determining how groups recalibrate their activities in 2017.”

Maritime risks on increase across Africa

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