International SOS warns political risk will continue in Pakistan through 2023

Businesses with people and operations in Pakistan have been warned of further security and civil unrest for months following the violence that erupted after the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan.

Gulnaz Ukassova, security director of information and analysis at International SOS, told Commercial Risk that despite de-escalating, the situation remains “tense”, with an expectation that Khan could be rearrested.

“We expect further flare-ups of large-scale protests and associated unrest occurring in major cities if Khan is rearrested,” Ukassova said. “Such cyclical bouts of unrest will cause significant disruption to people and businesses.”

International SOS advised businesses with workforces in Pakistan to limit non-essential movement when protests began as Khan was arrested earlier this month. Companies have also been advised to reconsider any travel plans to Pakistan for employees, and refer to the latest ISO 31030 standard to maintain duty of care responsibilities for staff travelling to volatile regions.

Ukassova told Commercial Risk that businesses are likely to face further disruption.

“We recommend organisations with people and operations in Pakistan to prepare for further security and logistical issues and challenges throughout the rest of 2023. Organisations should be prepared for potential further bouts of widespread protests and related unrest,” she said.

She added: “The deteriorating economic situation and uncertainty require resilience in the face of potential prolonged electricity and fuel shortages, and related disruption to various services and access to certain goods.”

International SOS has provided organisations with regular security updates on Pakistan alongside potential scenarios and escalatory triggers.

Ukassova said political instability and economic crisis in Pakistan combines with an increasing terrorist threat.

“We will continue to monitor this situation closely, as the instability and economic crisis may have the potential to impact Pakistan’s ability to contain the terrorist threat posed,” Ukassova said.