Direct physical damage from Turkiye quake estimated at $34.2bn

The two very large earthquakes on 6 February caused an estimated $34.2bn in direct physical damages in Turkiye, the equivalent of 4% of the country’s 2021 GDP, according to a World Bank rapid damage assessment report.

The report also acknowledges that recovery and reconstruction costs will be much larger, potentially twice as large, and that GDP losses associated with economic disruptions will also add to the cost of the earthquakes. Continued aftershocks will also likely add to this damage estimate over time, says the report, which has been prepared to help inform the early response of the World Bank Group and its partners and to support government planning for recovery and reconstruction in Turkiye.

The earthquakes of 7.8 and 7.5 magnitude, followed by more than 7,500 aftershocks and two additional earthquakes, have resulted in the largest such disaster to hit the country in over 80 years, and have inflicted the heaviest damage in 11 provinces in southern Turkiye. These regions have some of the highest poverty rates in the country and also host more than 1.7m Syrian refugees, which is almost 50% of the total Syrian refugee population in Turkiye.

The Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation Report, which focuses on the direct physical damages in Turkiye, also estimates that 1.25m people have been rendered temporarily homeless due to moderate to severe damage or complete building collapse. The report highlights that 81% of the estimated damages occurred in Hatay, Kahramanmaras, Gaziantep, Malatya, and Adiyaman provinces, which are home to around 6.45m people (around 7.4% of the total population of Turkiye).

Direct damages to residential buildings account for 53% ($18bn) of the total damage, with 28% of damage ($9.7bn) in non-residential buildings (e.g., health facilities, schools, government buildings, and private sector buildings), and 19% of damage ($6.4bn) related to infrastructure (such as roads, power, water supply).

The damage estimates in the report do not include the broader economic impacts and losses for the Turkish economy, or the cost of recovery and reconstruction, which could be significantly more than the direct damages and requires a more in-depth assessment.

This article first appeared on our sister website Middle East Insurance Review. For further news from Middle East Insurance Review, please click here