European health leaders warn of continued pandemic threat

As memories of the Covid-19 pandemic fade – to be replaced by concerns over more pressing threats such as the conflict in Gaza, supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine – a group of leading European health experts from Sweden and Belgium have issued a stark reminder that the risk remains very real.

The probability of experiencing another pandemic in our lifetime is, apparently, almost 40%, a fact that Europe’s risk managers ought to bear in mind when plotting their risk registers and helping produce crisis management plans.

This chilling reminder was issued in an opinion article published in European online reporting service Euractiv. The article was written by Jutta Urpilainen, European commissioner for international partnerships, Stella Kyriakides, European commissioner for Health, Frank Vandenbroucke, the Belgian deputy prime minister and minister for social affairs and public health, Johan Forssell, the Swedish minister for international development, and others.

“The probability of experiencing a new pandemic in one’s lifetime is almost 40%. In our highly interconnected world, our health and well-being depend on the health and well-being of others. Our future welfare and prosperity rely on our ability to address health issues on a global scale,” they said.

“Working together in promoting health, strengthening health systems worldwide to achieve universal health coverage, preventing new pandemics, developing new ways to prevent, diagnose and treat disease, and tackling inequalities and the health consequences of climate change and conflicts: this will be key for our prosperity,” continued the authors.

On 29 January, member states welcomed the EU Global Health Strategy, following efforts by the Swedish and Belgian presidencies of the Council of the European Union.

“The EU and its member states, or Team Europe, is the leading funder of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the World Health Organisation (WHO), underlining our commitment to strong multilateral institutions in health with WHO at its core,” wrote the health experts.

“However, much has changed over the past decade. The West African Ebola outbreak, Covid-19, the triple planetary crisis, the growing threat from antimicrobial resistance, and geopolitical developments are redrawing the global health map. So have many recent achievements,” they added.

They warned that the probability of extreme epidemics could increase threefold in the coming decades. “It is highly likely that we will experience an extreme pandemic like the 1918-1920 flu pandemic,” they wrote.

The experts explained that the new EU strategy has three core priorities:

• A focus on better health and well-being across people’s life course, through better living conditions that allow people to not only survive, but thrive, and live long and healthy lives. That entails access to education and employment, but also clean air and water.
• Building strong health systems and universal health coverage, to provide equitable access to quality health services and products, including sexual and reproductive health and rights. Such systems can withstand crises and reach even the most vulnerable.
• Preventing and combatting health threats, including pandemics. This includes a One Health approach combining planetary, animal and human health; integrated and collaborative surveillance systems worldwide which work together to exchange information; as well as enhancing equitable access to medical countermeasures.

“Investing in health is a key economic lever. It improves productivity, boosts employment and raises GDP. By involving all relevant sectors, instruments and policy areas, from climate and environment to research and innovation, free trade and the private sector, we recognise the potential for win-wins where health objectives overlap,” added the experts.