Hotter cities by 2050 will hit productivity and supply chains, warns Verisk report

The number of the world’s cities at extreme risk from heat stress is forecast to rise 58% from 482 today to 762 by 2050, according to new research from Verisk Maplecroft. Hotter cities cause increased health risks, result in more transport and power disruption, and threaten productivity, Verisk says. It adds that corporate supply chains can expect high commodity prices, lower productivity and growing labour risks in warmer months. “Climate change is going to force a re-evaluation how we live and work in urban environments, and global organisations and governments will have to start building these issues into their planning,” said Liz Hypes, senior environmental analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. “If emissions remain unchecked, temperatures and humidity will quickly rise, leaving many cities facing more frequent and severe heatwaves,” she added. London, which is predicted to be as hot as Milan is today by 2050, could lose as much as $2.8bn in lower productivity levels from illness and transport delays caused by higher temperatures, the report warns. Milan’s average temperature sits at about 30°C in July, some 11 degrees warmer currently than London. The report says Rome will be as hot as Agadir in Morocco by 2025, which could cause an additional 41 heat-stress days each year. Verisk says Rome’s 2017 heatwave threatened to result in rationed water for one million residents. “Pressures on power and water supplies, excess mortalities and labour capacity losses are already shared across southern European cities like Lisbon, Bologna and Athens… But they will, on average, transition into feeling more like Middle Eastern and north African cities,” Verisk says. “It is going to be an uncomfortable journey, and one that operators, investors and city officials need to start preparing for now,” it adds. In the US, Verisk says New York is expected to record an additional 30 heat-stress days each year by 2050, challenging the city’s health and infrastructure. A climate lawsuit in 2018 against fossil fuel companies revealed New York City was spending $100m on a programme to protect the most vulnerable from extreme heat. “These expenditures will grow hugely over the coming decades, with the costs of heat resilience strategies and fluctuating energy demands being passed onto real asset owners and businesses,” Verisk says. The report warns that Houston will become as hot as parts of Mexico, with implications for the production of oil and labour capacity if heat-stress days increase by 50% to 150 each year by 2050. Temperatures in Chicago are forecast to be more like Las Vegas, while Miami will be more on par with today’s cities in Venezuela, the report predicts. “The high exposure of cities in the US Sunbelt and the negative impacts on its main economic sectors, such as agriculture, tourism and the growing manufacturing sector, are a significant concern for real asset managers and investors, as well as governments,” Verisk says.

Hotter cities by 2050 will hit productivity and supply chains, warns Verisk report

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