Idalia forecast to hit Florida as Category 4 hurricane

Florida’s Gulf Coast is braced for the first major hurricane of the season, with Hurricane Idalia expected to make landfall today as a powerful Category 4 storm. Having rapidly intensified to a Category 3 hurricane, Idalia is expected to hit Florida’s sparsely populated Big Bend coast later today as a Category 4 hurricane, according to NOAA’s National Hurricane Centre. After landfall, Idalia is forecast to cross Florida and track along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday. A hurricane warning is in effect for the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay in Florida. A separate hurricane watch is in effect for the mouth of the St Mary's River to Edisto Beach in South Carolina. The storm is forecast to retain hurricane strength as it moves across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina. NOAA is also warning of a life-threatening storm surge along Florida’s West Coast, as well as wider flooding. Idalia is expected to produce four to eight inches of rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. “These rainfall amounts will lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts,” it said. Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued in at least 28 of Florida's 67 counties. US insurance and business intelligence firm CoreLogic estimates approximately 808,321 residential properties with $238.4bn in combined reconstruction cost value are at risk of storm surge flooding along the west coast of Florida. Energy companies in the oil rich Gulf have also evacuated staff from oil production platforms and shut down pipelines. Earlier this month, NOAA increased its hurricane season prediction to ‘above normal’ from ‘near-normal’ activity. Its forecasters said current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Niño event. NOAA’s update to the 2023 hurricane season outlook – which runs from June until the end of November – predicted six to eleven hurricanes, of which two to five could become major hurricanes. Issuing the updated forecast, Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said: “The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Niño and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.” Earlier this month, Hurricane Hilary made landfall in Baja California, Mexico, as a Category 1 storm.

Idalia forecast to hit Florida as Category 4 hurricane

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