Many of the biggest-emitting countries most exposed to climate risk: Verisk Maplecroft

Thirteen of the world’s largest carbon emitters are at risk from the severest impacts of climate change if no action is taken to reduce its impact, according to new research by risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft. Brazil, Thailand, India, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Indonesia and Vietnam and Malaysia are running the greatest climate hazards among these countries, the research finds.

In its analysis of the 30 countries responsible for 90% of carbon pollution today, Verisk Maplecroft identified 13 countries that are running high or very high risk climate risks by 2080 under both a medium climate scenario, with a delayed transition, and worst case climate scenarios, where there is no change to current policies.

Malaysia, Iraq, Mexico and Australia reduce their exposure to medium risk under the most optimistic scenario, but all four risk much poorer outcomes under either middle-of-the-road or worst-case scenarios, Verisk Maplecroft warns.

It adds that swift government action has the potential to improve physical risks from climate change.

“Policy decisions in the coming years will lock in physical risks later in the century. This matters most for Egypt, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Thailand and Brazil, which will likely experience some of the most significant impacts of climate change under all three scenarios, including the most optimistic pathway,” the research finds.

It adds that some fossil-fuel producing countries, particularly in the Middle East, may not see the benefits of a low-carbon transition as worth their while. “A viewpoint that could undermine future international climate negotiations,” the firm says.

The world’s two largest emitters, US and China, will not be immune to the impact of climate change, the research finds, but will escape the most serious scenarios.

James Lockhart Smith, Verisk Maplecroft’s head of sustainable finance, says the UN’s Convention of Climate Change often gives the impression that countries are either drivers of climate change or sufferers. “But our analysis reveals a clear overlap between those perpetuating global warming and the societies and economies set to face the harshest consequences,” he says.

Verisk Maplecroft says extreme heat is likely to be the single biggest threat to economic activity and human life in the countries most affected by the impact of climate change.

Its research reveals that the 13 most climate-exposed major emitting countries will experience more average hot days, where temperatures exceed 35˚C, by 2080, while the maximum number of hot days is predicted to extend to almost a whole year under the worst-case scenario for countries such as Malaysia, Mexico and Brazil.