Nervous wait for business as Nigeria delays heading to the polls

Due to have been held this Saturday [February 14], the elections were postponed with just one week to go after Nigeria’s electoral commissioner announced concerns that the military would not be available to protect voters going to polling stations across the country because it was concentrating its efforts on tackling insurgency group Boko Haram in the north east. Presidential and parliamentary elections, also due to take place on 14 February, have been postponed to 28 March and the elections for state governors and assemblies set for 28 February have been moved to 11 April. US Secretary of State John Kerry warned “Political interference with the Independent National Electoral Commission is unacceptable, and it is critical that the government not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process.”hideAlthough some had been pressing for a delay about a month ago, the move coming just a week before polling day was unexpected. Although hopeful of business as usual in the wake of the elections, there had been concern among risk managers that the result might have been extremely close and lead to political violence in some part of the country. After the elections in 2011, which were seen as relatively fair, some 1,000 people died in post election violence. Insurers and risk managers told Commercial Risk Africa that Nigeria “had less of a problem on election day but is known for the violence afterwards”. Joachim Adenusi, Managing Director of Lagos-based risk managers Conrad Clark, is confident this election will be different, whenever it happens. “Social media is changing everything,” he said. However, other risk managers who spoke to Commercial Risk Africa admitted they were nervous. One said: “We want free and fair elections. In the community where I live we will be down at the polling station watching the count and reporting it on the internet to try and make sure it is fair.” Mr Adenusi added “We are urging everyone to go to the polling stations and counting stations and tweet what they see. “We are a young population and we are doing things differently. By watching what happens and recording it, there will be collective evidence and that will transform democracy in the country.” He said “I am excited about that but I don’t think the people in power are aware of the change.” Amy Gibbs, Associate at JLT Specialty, said: “For investors, the election will be key in determining the country’s short-and medium term risk outlook. Should Goodluck Jonathan be re-elected, political risks in respect of contract sanctity will rise.” On the political violence issue, she added: “There are also concerns a victory for Mr Jonathan could see protests reignite in the northern states, in echoes of the post-2011 electoral violence. Accusations of vote rigging could be a trigger for unrest, particularly since there are concerns about voting logistics in a number of northern states on account of the threat of Boko Haram attacks to intimidate voters.” However, in the event of a Buhari victory, she warned: “We would anticipate an increase in terrorist attacks as the Nigerian government commits to a new hardline offensive against Boko Haram. The terrorist group would react to this affront to their position with retaliatory attacks. Bombings, massacres and kidnapping incidents would increase in the north and may reach as far south as Abuja or even Lagos. “As the Buhari government would focus attentions on the impoverished north, there are also concerns of a possible resurgence of the southern-based Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Mr Jonathan’s ceasefire with this group may not hold if MEND perceives a bias towards the north in respect of oil wealth distribution.” Malte Liewerscheidt, Senior Africa Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed: “The selection of both candidates’ running mates is highly charged with ethnic and religious significance. Mr Jonathan’s running mate Namadi Sambo, a Muslim from Kaduna state, has been chosen to secure votes in the north, while Yemi Osinbajo, an influential southern Christian pastor, has been selected to ramp up support for Buhari in Lagos.” Like Ms Gibbs, he feared: “Boko Haram has an enormous interest in disturbing the effective conduct of elections. A significant disruption of the vote would plunge the Nigerian state into a severe constitutional crisis. “The decision not to hold elections in the ‘high risk’ areas of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, which are currently under Boko Haram control, severely undermines the credibility of the elections. The exclusion of these regions increases the chances that the defeated candidate will challenge the results.” Mr Liewerscheidt added: “It is very likely that an electoral defeat of Buhari will lead to riots in northern Nigeria, just as was the case in 2007 and 2011. Adetola Adegbayi, Executive Director of Leadway Insurance, was among those admitting it is too close to call but said she was hopeful the impact would not be too severe. Several insurance experts said the country generally does not see violence before elections, although the threat of an attack by Boko Haram is undiminished. Ms Adegbayi said that, regardless of the result, the new government would have some pressing issues to deal with – not just Boko Haram but also with falling revenues as a result of the tumbling price of crude oil. Bayo Fakorede, Operations Director at Staco Insurance, agreed but added his hopes for a peaceful election and that business would be able to continue as usual. He said there is a feeling in the country that they need a change and that they need to drive down levels of corruption. He feared any violence after the election would bring business to a standstill and is worried about the impact on the bottom line for insurers across the country. However he remained confident: “There will be no problem.” Commercial Risk Africa will be launching an election latest section on its website. For access to Africa Votes, please click http://www.commercialriskafrica.com/africaelections

Nervous wait for business as Nigeria delays heading to the polls

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