People risk intensified on back of pandemic, finds Italian research
People risk and the challenge of finding adequately skilled and qualified labour has been exacerbated by Covid-19 and the acceleration in the shift towards a more digital economy in Italy, according to the latest research carried out by EY, Pearson and Manpower Group
During the last decade, Italian companies have found it increasingly difficult to find workers with the desired skills in the Italian labour market. Prior to the pandemic, businesses were struggling to find 25% of the required professionals.
Given this scenario, the Covid-19 crisis could generate a loss of between 1.2 million and 1.4 million jobs, according to the OECD. Further, the recovery will be slow and will follow different evolutionary courses, in terms of growth rate and development direction, compared to those forecast before 2020.
It is likely that a good number of the lost jobs will be reabsorbed during the coming months, but this could happen because the needs of all industries have evolved. Organisations, in the meantime, are waking up to the fact that they must make a qualitative leap towards more technological operating and business models.
According to the study, Professions 2030: The Future of Skills in Italy, conducted by EY, Pearson and Manpower Group, the technological transition and the ongoing Covid-19 crisis will accelerate the obsolescence of skills, tasks and job titles, further redefining employment.
The pandemic has given rise to a need for economic and social resilience that will become structural in the labour world and modify the demand for new roles by companies. In addition to the skills specific to the various positions, there will be greater attention on so-called soft skills, such as the ability to relate, listen and interact, finds the research.
The evolution towards digitalisation (57% of the fastest-growing occupations need a technical background) will require new professional profiles but also the upskilling or reskilling of workers, and adequate training of young people entering the labour market for the first time.
The research uses a model that predicts how jobs and skills will change in response to fluctuating key macro trends, such as sustainability and environmental, social, political and technological changes. The study is based on a methodological structure created by the University of Oxford, enhanced and adapted by the integration of new tools and a machine-learning algorithm. The method aims to try and anticipate future needs regarding the most-requested roles and qualifications in the next ten years.
Predictive models on employment in Italy show that 80% of existing professions will change quantitatively during the next decade. According to the model, today more than one in three workers conduct an activity that will grow in the next ten years (36%), 20% work in a business that will remain stable and 44% are in a field bound to regress.
Half of the growing occupations will be somehow linked to technology, but jobs in the areas of culture, communication, care and assistance (not only in the health sector), teaching and training will also increase.
In general, the figures show that upward employment trends are concentrated in corporate and personal services, while the most descendant trends are in manufacturing and agriculture.