Political tensions rise in Egypt and Guinea but improvements elsewhere

At the end of August, the UK government followed up by suspending 49 export licences for Egypt. The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills said this suspension applies to licences for the Egyptian Army, Air Force and Internal Security Forces or Ministry of the Interior. It applies to applications for new licences as well as extant licences and will continue until further notice. Business Secretary Vince Cable said: “The UK position is clear: we will not grant export licences where there is a clear risk that goods might be used for internal repression. We have already taken action to restrict exports to Egypt. As a result of the developing situation in Egypt, we have agreed with EU partners in this instance to go further and suspend all export licences for goods which might be used for internal repression. By acting together, we want to send a clear signal that we condemn all violence in Egypt.” This suspension will be kept under review until conditions in Egypt indicate that it is appropriate to lift these restrictions, the department said.hideMeanwhile, security analysts Maplecroft have issued a series of warnings on other African countries. These include Guinea, where it warned of an increased risk of violence in the run-up to elections scheduled for 24 September, 2013. It said that, since late February 2013, more than 50 people have been killed and another 350 injured in clashes in the capital Conakry during anti-government protests. The firm said: “The districts of Madina, Hamdallaye, Cosa and Bambeto in the capital have been particularly affected by violence, suggesting that company personnel living in or close to these areas will face heightened security risks. “Furthermore, protests often travel down Conakry’s two main arterial roads, potentially leading to operational disruption and delays to the city’s already congested transport network. There is a strong likelihood of further unrest in the run-up to the election, as well as in the post-election period. Given the febrile political atmosphere, protests may escalate rapidly, highlighting the need for businesses to closely monitor the situation.” Better news from Mali. After Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (known as ‘IBK’) was declared the new president of Mali, Maplecroft said the decision of the key opponent Soumaila Cisse to accept defeat quickly and the high voter turnout “strengthens the legitimacy of IBK’s presidency and provides a positive sign for the re-emergence of democracy. “Despite a prolonged period of disruption, slow improvements in the business environment are likely over the long term. Mali is expected to receive substantial levels of foreign aid and technical assistance. The elections will send a signal to the international community that Mali is now stable enough for significant reconstruction programmes to begin,” Maplecroft continued. In Somalia, too, there have been signs of slight improvent, although Maplecroft warned: “In the face of ongoing political, military and regulatory instability, companies can expect to face severe risks to operations in Somalia for the foreseeable future.” The risk of piracy has diminished although Maplecroft warned against complacency. Its view was echoed by maritime security company Gulf of Aden Group Transits, which said credible information suggested attacks were ‘probable or imminent’.

Political tensions rise in Egypt and Guinea but improvements elsewhere

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