Risky cities in strategic economies threaten supply chains: Maplecroft

The new research released by Verisk Maplecroft, which assesses 1300 of the world's most important commercial hubs and urban centres, also reveals a trend in western countries, including France, Belgium, Canada and Australia, where the level of risk in key urban centres is substantially higher than elsewhere in the country. This is in part due to the significant PR value attached to such high profile targets by militant Islamist groups, said Verisk Maplecroft. This contrasts sharply with a number of developing economies, including Nigeria, Thailand, Philippines, Colombia and India, where the risk of terrorist attack is highest in rural areas.hideThis also remains the case in Egypt where large-scale attacks remain focused in the Sinai Peninsula. However, Verisk Maplecroft's data shows increased risk in the country's two main commercial centres Cairo-45th in ranking and rated extreme risk-and Alexandria-ranked 76th and rated high risk. Alexandria has moved from medium to high risk over the last quarter. According to Verisk Maplecroft's GAD, terrorist attacks pose an 'extreme risk' to populations and business in the capital cities of 12 countries, including in the strategic markets of Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Nigeria and Pakistan. In total, 64 cities are categorised as extreme risk in the GAD. Six cities in Iraq top the ranking. Over this period, the country's capital, Baghdad, suffered 380 terrorist attacks resulting in 1141 deaths and 3654 wounded. This makes it the world's highest risk urban centre, followed by the Iraqi cities of Mosul, Al Ramadi, Ba'qubah, Kirkuk and Al Hillah. Outside of Iraq, capital cities rated extreme risk include Kabul, Afghanistan (13th most at risk), Mogadishu, Somalia (14th), Sana'a, Yemen (19th) and Tripoli, Libya (48th). According to Verisk Maplecroft, Paris ranks 97th and is deemed at high risk of terrorist attack. It has experienced one of the steepest rises in the ranking, reflecting the severity of the terrorist attack in January 2015 that left 17 people dead. The risk level in Paris is representative of a wider trend in Europe for cities to be at more risk than non-urban areas. GAD is an online mapping and data portal that logs and analyses every reported terrorism incident worldwide. The 2015 version is based on the intensity and frequency of attacks in the 12 months following February 2014, combined with the number and severity of incidents in the previous five years. Nigeria's role as a commercial hub is central to economic growth across the African region. The activities of Islamist group Boko Haram and a surge in violence in the lead up to the country's March election has resulted in 13 out of the 24 Nigerian cities included in GAD to experience a significant increase in the intensity and frequency of terrorist attacks compared to the previous quarter. The risk level in Nigeria's capital Abuja, which is ranked 19th, has remained consistent. However, it is rated among the top 2% of GAD's most at risk cities. Over the reporting period, Abuja suffered four attacks that resulted in 117 deaths. While Boko Haram will remain the dominant terrorist threat in Nigeria, Verisk Maplecroft believes there is a possibility of hostilities resuming in the Niger Delta following the election of Mohammed Buhari. "The amnesty protecting members of the militant group MEND is due to lapse and without successful negotiations this could mean disruption to the country's vital oil industry, in addition to attacks on key cities in the south east of the country," said Maplecroft. The only other Sub Saharan capital to appear in the 'extreme risk' category is Nairobi, ranked 57th. As east Africa's prime commercial centre it has witnessed an upsurge in attacks by Islamist militant group al Shabaab. Over the reporting period 184 people have been killed or wounded in Nairobi in six attacks. The impact of terrorism on Kenya's main commercial hubs of Nairobi and Mombasa (ranked 82nd) has been particularly harmful to investor confidence, said Maplecroft. In addition, the Kenyan tourist trade has declined by 7.4%, costing the country an estimated US$73m, it added. "An estimated 80% of global GDP is generated from cities," said Charlotte Ingham, Principal Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. "Visibility of the sub-national differences in terrorism levels should be an imperative for multinational organisations looking to understand and price the risks to assets, employees and supply chains."

Risky cities in strategic economies threaten supply chains: Maplecroft

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