Swedish thinktank warns of ‘critical’ risks from confluence of climate change and war

The world is in danger of stumbling into a risk management crisis because of the worrying increase in both armed conflict and environmental crises.

According to a report from Sweden-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the world is ill prepared for a new age in which environmental degradation meets increased armed conflict.

The report, entitled Environment of Peace: Security in a new Era of Risk, warns of a global emergency. “A compound environmental crisis and a darkening security horizon are feeding each other,” it states.

SIPRI’s background is as an independent research institute best known for its annual tracking of international arms exports.

Its report highlights areas such as Somalia, where the effects of a two-year drought are compounded by attacks from terror group al-Shabab. And there are parts of Central America where crop failures linked to climate change have occurred at the same time as ongoing conflicts and corruption.

However, the lack of a global plan means the world is stumbling into the intertwined dangers of felled forests, melting glaciers and polluted oceans on one side, and rising numbers of conflict-related deaths and arms expenditure on the other.

The SIPRI report states that the number of armed conflicts between countries doubled between 2010 and 2020, to 56. Meanwhile, the number of refugees and displaced people around the world also doubled, reaching 82.4 million.

The statistics show a worrying acceleration in conflict-related activity. For example, in 2020 there was an increase in the number of nuclear warheads, following years of declining numbers. And in 2021, global military spending surpassed $2trn for the very first time.

At the same time, roughly one in four species face extinction; the number of pollinating insects is rapidly declining; soil quality is deteriorating; and natural resources continue to be exploited at unsustainable levels.

“The pandemic shows us clearly the risks we run when we choose not to prepare,” says Margot Wallstrom, Sweden’s former foreign minister and a former European commissioner for the environment, who chaired the panel of international experts that advised the report’s authors and researchers.

“As the environmental and security crises get worse, governments need to assess what risks lie ahead, to develop the capacity to deal with them and to make societies more resilient,” she adds.

The Swedish research group recommends a number of principles that should be adopted by policymakers looking to solve the twin crisis – acting quickly; preparing for the unexpected; cooperation between governments; and focusing on peace.

It also highlights the example of South Korea as a country that has acted with foresight since the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020, thanks to the lessons learned from the SARS virus in 2002. The country has managed to keep its mortality rate to roughly 10% of countries with a similar population.

Above all, SIPRI calls on policymakers to adopt two principles when addressing climate change risk – to be fair to the poorer parts of society and to stop funding conflict.

“Conservation needs to happen but it cannot be coercive,” said Geoff Dabelko, one of the report’s lead authors and a professor at Ohio University’s Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Service. “A rapid zero-carbon transition is essential but it must be done fairly. Tackling the environmental crisis must go hand in hand with justice, equity and rights, building peace rather than undermining it,” he added.

Another panellist argued that governments must redirect financing away from activities that undermine peace. “Funding conflict risk is in no-one’s interest,” said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

“But many governments continue to fund non-essential and ill-targeted fossil fuel development and other environmentally destructive activities, which neither serve the interests of sustainability nor protect vulnerable communities. We need a wholesale redirection of investment towards peace, environmental stability and resilience.”