Terrorist attacks down but fatalities 30% above yearly average finds Maplecroft

The risk analytics company's latest MTSD reveals that Iraq is the country most at risk from terrorist attacks, followed by Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia. The annual MTSD logs, analyses and maps every reported incident of terrorism worldwide and ranks 197 countries in terms of terrorism risk. Over the last 12 months it recorded 18,668 global terrorism fatalities compared with an annual average of 14,433 for the previous five years. MTSD recorded 9,471 terrorist attacks over the last year, down from a five-year average of 10,468. This suggests that terrorist methods have become increasingly deadly.hideThe MTSD 2014 classifies 12 countries as 'extreme risk'. Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Somalia are followed by Nigeria that ranked 5th, Yemen (6th), Syria (7th), the Philippines (8th), Lebanon (9th), Libya (10th), Colombia (11th) and Kenya (12th). "Libya, Kenya and Egypt are among a handful of countries to witness a significant increase in risk in the MTSD and investor confidence in key sectors, including tourism and oil and gas, has been hurt," states Jordan Perry, Principal Political Risk Analyst at Maplecroft. "When faced with rising security costs and decreasing safety for their personnel, companies can, and do, reconsider their country-level commitments." With terrorism incidents in Libya doubling in the last year, militia violence is having a 'toxic' impact on the country's economy, especially its crucial oil sector, said Maplecroft. The flow of militants and weapons from Libya has also increased the risk of terrorism in Egypt, ranked 17th and at 'high risk'. Attacks in the Sinai Peninsula and Cairo reduced tourist numbers by 20% in May compared to the same month last year, while frequent bombings of the gas pipeline in North Sinai have impacted exports and government revenues. Tourism in Kenya, which accounts for roughly 12.5% of GDP, has also been hard hit, due to the increasing frequency and intensity of terrorism attacks by Somali-based Islamic militant group al Shabaab. With 69 fatalities and at least seven wounded, June 2014 represented the bloodiest month in Kenya since the Westgate shopping mall attack in September of last year. A single al Shabaab attack on Mpeketoni village in Lamu County on 15 June was responsible for 48 deaths alone. Despite the deteriorating security situation, Kenya's strong showing at its US$2bn debut Eurobond in June 2014 highlights continued investor interest in the country, said Maplecroft. The MTSD also reveals that attacks are on the rise in China, which is ranked 32nd and 'medium risk'. Fatalities in 2014 have reached 76, compared to 16 over the first six months of 2013. Iraq has recorded 3,158 acts of terrorism in the last year resulting in 5,929 fatalities, an increase of 2,188 deaths in the previous 12 months. It witnessed three times as many acts of terrorism as Pakistan, which had the second highest number of incidents. "The deteriorating security situation in Iraq underscores the government's inability to combat the militant group Islamic State-formerly known as ISIS, which now controls vital oil and gas infrastructure, while threatening other key assets across northern Iraq," said Maplecroft. An intensifying campaign of violence by Islamic militant group Boko Haram has seen Nigeria record by far the highest number of fatalities per terrorist attack. Nigeria has witnessed 146 reported attacks in the period 1 July, 2013 to 30 June, 2014, resulting in 3,477 deaths. This equates to an average of 24 people killed per attack, compared to two deaths per attack in Iraq. Maplecroft said that the increased capacity of Boko Haram is likely to lead to a further loss of investor confidence in Nigeria's ability to respond to security risks.

Terrorist attacks down but fatalities 30% above yearly average finds Maplecroft

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