Terror threat sees spike in right-wing attacks

More than a third of terrorist attacks (36%) in advanced markets were perpetrated by right-wing terrorists last year and have driven up casualty rates, according to data analysed by Pool Re in its latest threat report. The UK government-backed reinsurer says the “more active and lethal” right-wing movement has complicated the terrorist landscape. Such attacks are more likely to cause business interruption losses than cause significant material or property damage, it adds. The frequency of terrorist attacks in advanced markets has declined since the mid-1990s peak, when Pool Re was formed and there were an average 410 per year. This fell to an average of 192 in the 2010s, although spiked between 2014 and 2017. The numbers tailed off last year when they fell below the 30-year average, although fatalities were well above average. Of a total of 150,217 terrorist attacks worldwide since 1990, almost 5% – or 6,851 were carried out in advanced markets, the report says. Pool Re says “the lethality of attacks has increased significantly” in the past ten years, driven upwards by the mass casualties from Islamist extremist modus operandi. “Excluding 9/11, almost 44% of fatalities in advanced markets occurred in the last decade, with 2015, 2016 and 2017 accounting for the bulk of these,” Pool Re states. It adds that tactics to target the public in crowded or symbolic places have been adopted by right-wing extremists and added to the increase in casualties. Since 2010, Pool Re has recorded 447 attacks on places of worship and minority groups, compared with 177 in the 1990s. Attacks against commercial targets have fallen from 18% in the 1990s to just 5% between 2015 and 2018, Pool Re explains. This reflects a change in the terrorist landscape from IRA separatists targeting commercial infrastructure ,to the mass-casualty intent of Islamist extremism and right-wing extremism, it adds. Pool Re says the new terror threat landscape “exposes new vulnerabilities for businesses, especially SMEs”. It says firms must adopt rigorous approaches to new terrorist threats, in particular where there could be loss of life and business interruption risks, which could arise even if the business is not a direct target. Pool Re stresses that the terrorism threat is not just a risk for London-based UK companies. “Small and medium-sized organisations across the country are equally likely to be affected, either directly or indirectly. Taking a risk by not buying terrorism insurance, and instead adopting the belief that ‘it will never happen here’, is a high-risk strategy in a world where terrorism is now, sadly, part of everyday life,” the report states. The UK terrorist threat level remains severe, and although there have been fewer Islamist extremism-driven attacks recently, Pool Re says the threat remains as high as ever. Ed Butler, Pool Re’s chief resilience officer, explained that “the threat of Islamist extremists acting alone remains acute”, with the police and MI5 undertaking 700 live investigations at any one time. Mr Butler said an average of one major, late-stage terror plot is brought down by UK intelligence every four weeks. At the same time, Mr Butler said the threat from right-wing terrorists is filling the recent gap in Islamist extremist attacks. Seven of the 22 plots foiled since March 2017 have been right-wing terrorists and Pool Re said further attacks are likely. Other potential drivers of the terrorism threat include Brexit, which could cause political polarisation and disenchantment and see a rise in violence by terrorist and extremist groups, the report notes. “A hard or no-deal Brexit may lead to an increase in attacks by violent dissident republicans in Northern Ireland, with potential spillover effects,” Pool Re says. It adds that threats could also come from the left. “A reaction by extreme left-wing movements off the back of civil disorder over Brexit cannot be ignored either,” it adds.

Terror threat sees spike in right-wing attacks

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