TSR raises forecast for ‘hyper-active’ North Atlantic hurricane season
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has raised its forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024, predicting that it will be “hyper-active” and around 70% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm.
TSR is now forecasting five intense hurricanes, 11 hurricanes and 22 storms. The ten-year norm (2104-2023) is 3.4 intense hurricanes, 7.6 hurricanes and 16.9 storms.
TSR also forecasts three US landfalling hurricanes and five US landfalling storms. TSR stressed that this forecast has higher confidence than normal at this lead time.
“Although some uncertainties remain, we consider that the more likely scenario is for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be warmer than normal by August-September 2024, and for moderate La Niña conditions to develop and persist through August-September 2024 and into the autumn. These two factors are both expected to have a strong enhancing influence on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season,” said TSR.
It also noted that the July-September forecast trade wind over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic is forecast to be weaker than normal. “Weaker than normal trade winds during July-September in the tropical north Atlantic are associated with higher cyclonic vorticity and decreased vertical wind shear over the hurricane main development region. This in turn increases hurricane frequency and intensity,” said TSR.
