‘Revolutionary’ cat modelling initiative provides solutions for risk managers

Launched on Tuesday, the Oasis framework is open to anyone with an interest in creating or accessing new catastrophe risk models. With a comparatively low cost entry barrier it aims to allow scientific and technical experts to more easily refresh views on scientific and building vulnerability aspects of catastrophe risk management. Simultaneously the platform looks set to provide greater transparency and flexibility for users. It is designed to operate as a set of plug-and-play components that can be developed by any member, to meet many and various needs. The modular design of the framework further allows direct access to insights from a wider pool of experts in academia and local geophysics institutions, potentially reducing the lag for new scientific knowledge to be incorporated into risk modelling.hideMembers, or users, can put their own models into the framework and they can invite others, such as reinsurers, to run them. Initially, a number of commercial models will be available, including four for flood, (including Great Britain and Australia), three for earthquake (US, north Africa and Middle East), Cascadia tsunami and Brazilian bush fire. Others in development for expected release during this year include Thai flood, US flood, Middle East quake and US commercial/industrial quake. According to Dickie Whitaker, Project Director, Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, the new initiative will help risk managers at large organisations to better access nat cat modelling data to analyse risks. "Thanks to the flexibility of Oasis, risk managers from multinational companies will be able to take advantage of catastrophe modelling techniques in a way that has not been very practical with large models built for the insurance industry. Models are now being developed that look at structures from a detailed engineering perspective," he explained. "For years corporate risk managers have sought to get more appropriate risk models for site analysis, Oasis should stimulate providers to fill this gap." Adding: "Oasis allows you to get your own view of risk. Much as apps have revolutionised smart phones, so Oasis can revolutionise the market for catastrophe models." Oasis is owned by 21 insurers, reinsurers and brokers, including Lloyd's and leading European and North American players. The main European climate initiative Climate KIC is the 22nd owner, or founding member. It also has 36 associate scientific and technical members. For the insurance industry, the potential benefits of Oasis include better informed risk selection, pricing and capital allocation, more focused reinsurance negotiation, support for regulatory compliance and wider choice, greater transparency and reduced costs in modelling. Tom Bolt, Director of Performance Management for another Oasis founding member Lloyd's, said of the new platform: "It is clearly key for the market to have model transparency and choice. Oasis, an open framework, clearly adds to the pool of knowledge and gives choice to the market. It is exciting that after two years in development, Oasis members have software that they can use in addition to existing solutions." Peter Taylor, Technical Director of Oasis, said that the Oasis Framework will reveal the uncertainties in pricing and capital adequacy following from variations in model and portfolio data and from within the calculations themselves. "The quantitative insights into what we don't know will help us make better informed decisions," he said. Paul Jardine, Chief Operating Officer of founding Oasis member Catlin, explained the likely benefits further: "At Catlin we have always sought to have a diversity of models and have as much transparency in those models as possible. Barriers to entry have restricted that choice in the area of cat modelling and we are really pleased to see Oasis go from concept to reality." Membership of Oasis is now open to all. In 2014, this will cost £20,000. As other revenue sources come on stream, this figure is expected to reduce. For this fee members get direct access to the code and participation in the community working parties.

‘Revolutionary’ cat modelling initiative provides solutions for risk managers

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